Article
How severe the season is
CDC data for the week ending Jan. 3 show 42 states plus the District of Columbia with high or very high flu-like illness activity. The cumulative hospitalization rate, 40.6 per 100,000 people, is the second highest for this point in the season since 2010-11. CDC now estimates at least 15 million illnesses, about 180,000 hospitalizations and about 7,400 deaths so far, including 17 children. The agency classifies the season as moderately severe.
The late-December data were even more striking. About 8.2% of outpatient visits in the week ending Dec. 27 were for flu-like illness, the highest share since the 1997-98 season. New York recorded 4,546 flu hospitalizations in one week, a state record. Test positivity eased slightly in early January, but that does not mean admissions have crested. Only about 43% of children and adults had received a flu shot as of late December.
Where the strain is showing
UnityPoint Health-Des Moines postponed some surgeries and procedures requiring an overnight stay through Jan. 13. Pediatric centers are especially tight: UNC Children’s Hospital reported being at capacity, and Children’s Hospital Colorado has logged about 600 flu admissions in three months, against roughly 800 for all of last season. The surge is landing on a system with little room. Nationally, staffed inpatient occupancy has run near or above 70% for most of the past two years.
An operating checklist for the next six weeks
- Set clear surge triggers. Tie elective deferrals, extra staffed beds and diversion decisions to defined occupancy and boarding thresholds, so decisions are not made ad hoc at 2 a.m.
- Protect outpatient and same-day surgery. Shift cases that do not need an inpatient bed to ambulatory settings rather than canceling them outright.
- Push discharge earlier in the day. Daily throughput huddles, weekend discharge teams and post-acute partner coordination free more beds than adding cots in hallways.
- Protect the workforce. Staff illness compounds patient volume. Offer vaccination on every shift and plan float pools around expected absences.
- Track the financial effect. Delayed procedures and extended boarding hit margins. Measure lost and deferred volume weekly so the board sees the trade-offs.
- Coordinate regionally. Transfer agreements and shared bed visibility with nearby hospitals reduce diversion and keep pediatric patients moving to the right setting.
Hospitals that handle this season well will be those that treat it as a capacity event to be managed with data, rather than a clinical event to be endured.
Archive entry for Jan 13, 2026, added Nov. 11, 2026.